China, the world’s largest consumer and producer of pork meat, is undergoing a transformation in its pork market. Various factors, such as the recovery of local production after African swine fever, fluctuations in demand, and changes in trade policies, will impact the trade of this product in 2025.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has issued projections indicating that China will reduce its pork imports next year. This is due to an increase in national production and a greater focus on food self-sufficiency, which could significantly alter the global pork market.
Since the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018, China has implemented strict measures to recover and stabilize its domestic production. By 2025, production is expected to surpass pre-crisis levels, thanks to investments in technology, biosecurity, and the modernization of pig farms. This growth will reduce dependence on imports and strengthen the local industry.
The reduction of Chinese pork imports will affect major exporters such as the European Union, Brazil, and the United States. These countries, which have been key suppliers to China in recent years, will need to seek alternative markets or adjust their production to mitigate the impact of this decline in demand.
Chinese consumers are changing their eating habits, opting for higher-quality products with stricter health certifications. This means that while the overall demand for pork may decrease, premium and value-added products could maintain a stable market share within the country.
The Chinese government continues to implement policies to improve food self-sufficiency. Import restrictions, incentives for local production, and trade agreements with strategic partners will influence market dynamics. It is essential for exporters to understand these changes in order to adapt and remain competitive.
The pork meat trade in China for 2025 will undergo a transformation driven by the growth of local production and evolving consumer preferences. Exporters must adjust their strategies to stay relevant in a constantly changing market, while China continues to strengthen its self-sufficiency in the pork industry.
